Belmont Stakes 2015 Analysis

  As you may or may not know, I am a huge racing fan. I love to read about famous racehorses of the past, scour over Thoroughbred pedigrees for the names of great races, and most importantly, follow the Triple Crown in hopes that one horse may win in my lifetime. Coming into the Belmont Stakes this weekend, there is excitement in the air. American Pharoah has won both the Derby and the Preakness in excellent form, and yet again we face the possibility of having the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed, who won it 37 years ago. In 2004, Smarty Jones, a horse loved by many, came close to winning the Triple Crown, only to be defeated by Birdstone. Big Brown, who almost everyone rooted for, was denied the right to the Triple Crown in 2008 when he was beat by Da' Tara. Three years ago, I'll Have Another, another horse beloved by racing fans and non-racing fans alike, won both the Derby and the Preakness. He unfortunately scratched just before the Belmont. Last year, we saw California Chrome, a horse that everyone loved and believed in, come short of winning the Triple Crown, finishing fourth to Tonalist. Is American Pharoah better than these horses?

 American Pharoah is by Pioneerof the Nile, out of Littleprincessemma. If you skip back several generations on his sire's side, you will find Unbridled, sire of Unbridled's Song. You will also find Mr. Prospector and Northern Dancer five generations back, but they are found in the pedigree of most any horse these days. Bold Ruler, sire of Secretariat, can also be found on his sire's side. Pharoah's dam also has several well know names in her pedigree. Several generations back, you will find Storm Cat, a great grandson of Secretariat. You will also find Exclusive Native and Northern Dancer. In his career, American Pharaoh has raced seven times. Out of those seven times, he has only lost one race, coming fifth in his maiden race last August at Del Mar. After that, he raced at Del Mar once more, this time in a futurity. He won that race, winning a stakes race at Santa Anita after that. This year, he raced only twice before beginning his Triple Crown campaign. Both races were at Oaklawn park, and he won both of them.

American Pharoah in the Preakness Stakes
 Source

  This weekend, American Pharoah will attempt to be the twelfth horse in history to win the Triple Crown, the most prestigious event in American horse racing. In the Derby, he stayed near the front of the pack the entire race, pulling into first place in the last few furlongs to make a strong first place finish. He took an early lead in the Preakness Stakes and won by seven lengths, in spite of the muddy track, proving that he can win in all conditions. However, the Belmont will prove the most grueling of all the Triple Crown races at length of a mile and a half. It has earned the nickname "the Graveyard of Champions"  because many horses have won the Derby and the Preakness but failed in the Belmont. In fact, thirteen horses besides American Pharoah have come close to winning the Triple Crown since Affirmed won in 1978. Only seven horses stand between American Pharoah and the Triple Crown. They are: Frammento, Frosted, Keen Ice, Madefromlucky, Materiality, Mubtaahij, and Tale of Verve.

Frammento: Frammento, by Midshipman and out Ginger Bay, is trained by Nick Zito. Two horses trained by Zito have denied Triple Crown contenders the pleasure of winning the Belmont. In 2004, Zito's Birdstone beat the famous Smarty Jones in the Belmont. Zito's Da' Tara beat Big Brown in the 2008 Belmont. With only one first in his entire career of eight races, Frammento is a longshot, but anything can happen in the Belmont.

Madefromlucky: Madefromlucky is by Lookin At Lucky and out of Home From Oz. Also in his
pedigree is Pulpit, A.P. Indy, and Mr. Prospector. Madefromlucky's trainer is none other than Todd Pletcher, who trained the infamous Tonalist, the horse that beat California Chrome in last year's Belmont. Madefromlucky competed only in maidens last year, and earlier this year, he placed second and fourth in the Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby, respectively. Those two races were won by American Pharoah. Rather than running in the Derby, Madefromlucky raced in the Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park, coming in first.

Post positions and odds. Click to enlarge.
Source

Mubtaahij: Mubtaahij is by Dubawi and out of Pennegale. He was raced three times as a two-year-old, all maiden races, and only won one of the races. Before racing in the Derby, he won three races and placed second in another. In the Kentucky Derby, he finished eighth.

Tale of Verve: Tale of Verve is a homebred by Tale of Ekati and out of Verve. Unbridled, Storm Cat, and Sunday Silence are each found several generations back in his pedigree. Out of the six races he had run before the Preakness, Tale of Verve had only won one of them, a maiden he had run not long before the Derby. Because of his not very good record, Tale of Verve entered the Preakness with odds of 28-1. However, this longshot surprised everyone by running second to American Pharoah.

Horses American Pharoah Should Watch Out For

 Frosted: Frosted is by Tapit and out of Fast Cookie. Tapit is by Pulpit, the sire of Lucky Pulpit, who is the sire of California Chrome. Frosted has A.P. Indy three generations back on his sire line. A.P. Indy is the son of Seattle Slew, the 1977 Triple Crown winner. In fact, Seattle Slew appears on both sides on Frosted's pedigrees. Needless to say, he has an impressive pedigree, and a pretty good race record as well. With odds of 5-1, Frosted proves to be a horse American Pharoah should watch out for.

Keen Ice: Keen Ice is by Curlin, out of Medomak. Curlin was a stayer(he was great at long races), coming second by a head in 2007's Belmont and being named the Eclipse Champion three-year-old colt and the Horse of the Year in 2007. He is also the sire of Palace Malice, who competed in 2013's Derby and Belmont; and Ride on Curlin, who competed in last year's Triple Crown. Though he placed only seventh in the Derby, his jockey believes that Keen Ice can be competitive in the Belmont. Keen Ice was bred for stamina, which is just what is needed in the Belmont.

Materiality(right), trained by Todd Pletcher
Source

Materiality: Materiality is by Afleet Alex and out of Wildwood Flower. Materiality was unraced as a two-year-old, but has been successful this year as a three-year-old. He broke his maiden in his first race, which was at Gulfstream Park, winning both of the following races as well. He placed sixth in the Derby. Materiality is trained by Todd Pletcher, who you may recognize as the trainer of Tonalist, the horse that beat California Chrome in last year's Belmont. This year, Pletcher hopes to win the Belmont from a Triple Crown winner once again. With odds of 7-1, Materiality may just have a chance of doing it.

 I think that American Pharoah has a high chance of winning the Triple Crown, but I thought the same thing with California Chrome, and many people have thought the same with Smarty Jones, Big Brown, and I'll Have Another. It will be a dream come true for me to see a Triple Crown winner in my lifetime. Reading about it is one thing, but experiencing it firsthand is entirely different. I hope that American Pharoah can do it, and I believe in him. What are your thoughts?

Sources:
Pedigree Query
"Triple Crown Letdown Fatigue" by Fran Jurga
Equibase
Washington Post
Belmont Stakes Contenders

California Chrome Triple Crown Upset

 California Chrome, like Smarty Jones, War Emblem, and many others failed to snag the final jewel of the Triple Crown, the grueling mile and a half Belmont Stakes. He ran along the rail, settling for fourth place, and getting boxed in at the last turn. As the pack rounded the final turn, he was forced to the outside. He tried his heart out, yet couldn't catch the leader. It turned out to be Tonalist who won the Belmont, not California Chrome, who tied for fourth with Wicked Strong. Commissioner came second and Medal Count third.

Something I found on EN. credit

 I was extremely disappointed when I saw what happened---I could hardly believe it. Like many others, I had believed in California Chrome. I was with him every step of the race hoping that he would be the next Affirmed or Secretariat. He came so close. Yet even though he did join the ranks of Smarty Jones and other Triple Crown near-misses, I still think he is an amazing horse with lots of heart. His rags to riches fairy tale type story is still one that will be remembered by Americans for decades to come. It has been 36 long years since Affirmed won the last Triple Crown, and more years will pass, yet one thing California Chrome did give racing fans and non fans alike was hope. Hope that perhaps the Triple Crown still is possible. Despite the fact that he didn't make it, he will still be remembered as a racing hero, at least in my mind.

 One of California Chrome's owners, Steve Coburn says the following,“I will never see another Triple Crown winner in my life because of the way they do this. It isn’t fair to these horses who have been in it from day one.” Tonalist had raced in neither the Preakness or the Derby, so he was fresh, unlike Chrome who had ran in three races over a mile long in the past five weeks. As usual, the Belmont lives up to its nickname, "The Test of Champions." What are your thought's on Coburn's remarks? In a way, I can see where he is coming from but I'm not sure if they should change the Triple Crown's rules. 

Mine That Bird

 On May 10, 2006, a small bay colt was born in Kentucky out of Mining My Own, with the Birdstone being the sire. As a yearling, Mine That Bird was sold to a Canadian horse trainer, David Cotey, for $9,500 and put into training in Canada. He had a nasty temperament at first, so they gelded him not long after he went into training.

 Mine That Bird began his racing career in Canada, winning four of six races, including the Silver Deputy Stakes, the Swynford Stakes, and the Grey Stakes, with jockey Constant Montpellier riding the gelding for the first two races and Chantal Sutherland aboard for the last four. By the end of his two-year-old season, he had become Cananda's Champion Two-year-old Male Horse of 2008.

 After his successful first racing season, Mine That Bird was sold for $400,000 to a ranch in New Mexico and was put under the trainer Bennie "Chip" Woolley with the jockey Calvin Borel. He arrived just in time for the 2008 Breeders' Cup Juvenile, but finished last among twelve starters.

 He didn't race again until 2009, during his three-year-old season. The season didn't begin with a any wins, starting with Mine That Bird finishing second in the Borderland Derby on February 28, then fourth in the Sunland Derby on March 29. Despite the losses, Mine That Bird qualified for the Kentucky Derby, which would be his first race that year outside of New Mexico. He arrived at the as an underdog, his odds being 50-1.

Mine That Bird in the Kentucky Derby.
credit

 The night before the big race, rain poured down, leaving the track muddy and sloppy. Mine That Bird had trouble at the starting gate that race, leaving him eight lengths behind everyone else. By the time the rest of the pack was travelling down the backstretch, it seemed impossible for Mine That Bird to catch up. Calvin Borel urged the gelding onward, travelling along the inside rail to save time and distance. When Mine That Bird caught up with the rest of the pack, he zoomed passed them from the inside, taking the lead near the homestretch. Remarkably, he won by six lengths against horses whose odds were much better than his.

 After his amazing performance in Kentucky, which many people considered a fluke, Mine That Bird entered the Preakness Stakes under the jockey Mike Smith since Calvin would be riding Rachel Alexandra. Mine That Bird again started out slow and came from behind to pass the rest of the pack, but he was unable to catch up with Rachel Alexandra. He finished second behind her by only a length.

 Next, he entered the Belmont Stakes and was once again ridden by Calvin Borel. He came from behind, catching up with Dunkirk and Charitable Man near the end, but ended up third to Summer Bird and Dunkirk.

 He then came third in the West Virginia Derby and ninth in the Breeders' Cup Classic, ending his career. Afterward, he was nominated as New Mexico's 2009 Horse of the Year.

Palace Malice Wins Belmont Stakes 2013

 The other day, Palace Malice zoomed to the lead in the Belmont Stakes, with Orb waiting to make his move. Orb tried to catch up and take the lead, but failed. Oxbow passed him and placed third.

Seattle Slew: Three-Year-Old Season

 Seattle Slew, known as the "People's Horse," began his three-year-old season as a favorite for the Kentucky Derby. He first won a seven furlong race at Hialeah, running in the track record time of 1:20 3/5, followed by victories in the Flamingo Stakes and the Wood Memorial Invitational Stakes.

Seattle Slew after the flamingo Derby.
(Credit)

 By the time the Derby rolled around, critics were saying that the lightly raced three-year-old wouldn't stand a chance. Seattle Slew was agitated during the post parade, and was foaming around the mouth, proving to the doubters that he would tire easily. 

 Seattle Slew banged his face on the starting gate right at the beginning, nearly throwing jockey Jean Cruguet. For the Moment took the early lead. Despite his slow start, Seattle Slew caught and passed the leaders within the first quarter mile, leaving the early leaders to fade away.

Seattle Slew winning the Kentucky Derby.
(credit).

"He broke slowly. He was shut off immediately. He had to overcome adversity. And then he went on to do what he was supposed to do. That's the sign of a racehorse," said Billy Turner, Slew's trainer. 

 Seattle Slew won the Preakness in the same manner two weeks later. He ran the fastest opening mile on record, easily passing Iron Constitution, Run Dusty Run, J.O. Tobin. After that, he almost effortless won the Belmont Stakes, becoming the first Triple Crown winner to win all of the classics as well. Furthermore, he became the first Triple Crown winner to be purchased at an auction. Eight others had been raced by their breeder and Sir Barton had been sold privately. 

 After his impressive victories in the Triple Crown races, many people offered to by him, including a $14 million from someone from Texas. Slew became so popular that his owners made tee-shirts, cocktail glasses, and rings featuring the young star. Companies, wanting to gain popularity, featured Slew in their advertisements. 

 However, the star didn't remain undefeated for long. Mickey Taylor and the rest of the crew raced him in the Swaps Stakes two weeks after the Belmont against Billy Turner's advice. Consequently, Slew lost to the English champion J.O. Tobin.

 The Taylors and the Hills took a lot of criticism for Slew's defeat. When Bill Turner told the press that the star should have never entered that race, Mickey fired him. Then Slew suffered from respiratory infections and a near-fatal virus. Even so, he was name 1977 Horse of the Year. 

Assault: Three-Year-Old Season

 Assault began his three-year-old season with a victory at the Experimental Handicap, followed by the Wood Memorial Stakes. 

 In the the Derby Trial, he placed fourth, with Rippey, Spy Song, and With Pleasure in front of him. Fans began to doubt whether or not he had it in him to win the Derby. 

Assault in the winners circle(photo credit).

 The Kentucky Derby came not long afterward. Lord Boswell was the betting favorite, and Assault was the fourth favorite. When Spy Song took and early lead, Assault followed close behind, catching him and winning by eight lengths, a distance that equaled the Kentucky Derby's longest length victory. However, he missed Whirlaway's time by over five seconds, running only 2:06 3/5.

Assault was made the betting favorite when he ran against Lord Boswell and eight others in the Preakness on May 11. Assault was boxed in early in the race, and was forced wide in the backstretch as he passed Natchez. All the way down the homestretch, he held the lead, with Lord Boswell four lengths behind him. Despite fatigue, he crossed the finish line a neck ahead of his rival. 

 Lord Boswell was the favorite in the Belmont Stakes in spite of Assaults victories. Fans believed that he was more suited to longer distances because of his near victory in the Preakness, especially since Assault had been exhausted at the end of the race. Assault was the second favorite. 

 Assault stumbled at the start, so Hampden took the lead right away. Assault didn't make his move until he neared the first turn, when he gave all he could, passing Natchez and winning by three lengths. Even though the race had been exciting, fans still doubted the seventh Triple Crown winner.

 Two weeks later, Assault won the Dwyer Stakes, but his time was unimpressive, and fans just thought he was the best of that group of of three-year-olds. He next lost the Arlington Classic. When he returned to the barn, he was diagnosed with a kidney infection.

 A month later, he was back on the track. He finished third behind Mighty Story in the Discovery Handicap, then second behind Mahout in the Jersey Handicap. On September 25, he met Stymie for the first time. Stymie was famous for winning from-the-behind, and his career had begun with cheap races, until he became Champion Handicap Horse in 1945. A rivalry was born from the day they first met.

 Stymie won their first meeting, the Manhattan handicap, and Assault cam third. After losing by a neck to Bridal Flower in the Roamer Handicap, he once more challenged his new rival, this time in the Gallant Fox Handicap. Once again he came third.

 In the Pimlico Special, the two met again. Eddie Arcaro, who was riding Assault for the first time, was told not to make a move until Stymie did. Assault ended up winning his first race since the Dwyer Stakes, beating both Bridal Flower and Stymie. 

 Assault won by two lengths in his final start that season, the Westchester Handicap. Despite his losing streak, he earned Horse of the Year honors and was named leading money winning. He had earned $424,195, and had won eight out of fifteen races that year.

 

 

Count Fleet: Three-Year-Old Season

 Count Fleet began his three-year-old career with an easy victory in the St. James Purse, a mile and seventy yards long race. Then he won the Wood Memorial, a mile and three-sixteenths long race, with a time of 1:43, making quality horses like Blue Swords and Slide Rule look cheap. However, in doing so, he banged his left hind leg, threatening his chances of entering the Kentucky Derby. Even so, he did race. Johnny Longden held ice of the wound the whole time, and Count Fleet won despite his injuries. Once again, Blue Swords came second and Slide Rule third.

 The Preakness told the same story: Count Fleet first and Blue Swords second. The Blood-Horse magazine said, "If Count Fleet is the spectacular comet in the racing skies of 1943, then Blue Swords is the comet's tail."

Count Fleet in the winner's circle at one of the tracks
he raced on(photo credit).

 Count Fleet ran in the Withers stakes between the Preakness and the Belmont. He won by six lengths, with Slide Rule, who had skipped the Preakness, second.

When the Belmont finally came, the owners of Blue Swords and Slide Rule decided to skip it, not wanting to be humiliated one more time. Count Fleet only had to beat two horses, which he did easily. In fact, he won by six lengths, becoming the sixth Triple Crown winner.

 Count Fleet retired due to an injured fetlock soon afterwards. His retirement came as a relief to the owner of Blue Swords, who had been beaten several times.

 He enjoyed great success at stud, producing stake winners and the 1952 Horse of the Year. Count Fleet passed away on December 3, 1973, and is buried at Stoner Creek.

Whirlaway: Three-year-old Season

 Whirlaway returned to the track in 1941. In his two races before the Kentucky Derby, he bore to the outside, afraid of the inner rail, which cost him the races. Because of that, Ben Jones trained him at home by running him between the rail and another horse. This may have made all the difference in the Derby.

 Equipped with a modified one-eye blinker and an experienced jockey, Eddie Arcaro, Whirlaway ran a somewhat straight line, winning by eight lengths and running 2:01 2/5, a new track record. Then rumors that Whirlaway had been using drugs began to spread. Even the usually calm Ben Jones was angry at the serious accusations.

Whirlaway in the Kentucky Derby winner's circle(credit).

 Nevertheless, Whirlaway proved himself in the Preakness Stakes. He was far behind the other horses after leaving the gate, and it seemed that he would not win. Then he made his move. He sped down the backstretch, passing every single horse for a win of five and a half lengths. It was incredibly breathtaking.

 By the time the Belmont Stakes rolled along, people were scared of Whirlaway's bursts of speed, so only a field of four horses ran that day. Whirlaway's three challengers tried to upset his strategy by setting a slow pace early on, but Eddie Arcaro had anticipated that, and cruised along right past them. He became Calumet Farm's first of two Triple Crown winners(see Citation).

 Whirlaway won several races after that. He beat Market Wise in the Dwyer Stakes, then won the American Derby, the Travers Stakes, defeated War Relic in the Saranac Handicap, and won the Lawrence Realization.

 However, oddly enough, the best race of his career is considered Jockey Club Gold Cup. He and Market Wise had battled throughout the race at a tremendous pace, until Market Wise finally won by a nose, setting a new American record of 3:20 2/5 in the process.

 Near the end of the 1941 season, Whirlaway was sent to the west cost to race there, but the bombing of Pearl Harbor cut the season to and abrupt end. He couldn't return home right away, because World War II travel restrictions. It wasn't until March the next year that he could finally leave.

 Despite the restrictions, he was still successful, and was named 1941 Horse of the Year and Champion Three-Year-Old Colt.

Omaha: Three-Year-Old Season

 In 1935, Omaha began his racing season at Aqueduct, where he won, then moved on to the Wood Memorial. He came third by only a nose. Next he went to the Kentucky Derby as the second favorite, the favorite being Man o' War's daughter from Calumet Farms, Nellie Flag.

 Also racing was the victor of that year's Wood Memorial,Today, and Hopeful Stakes winner Physic Bid, and Boxthorn, the third betting favorite. Omaha ended up taking the lead in the backstretch, winning by a length and a half. Nellie Flag had been caught in traffic, and consequently finished fourth behind Roman Soldier and Whiskolo.

 The Preakness came a week later. Omaha almost effortlessly won by six lengths, with a horse known as Firethorn second and Physic Bid third. By the time the Withers Stakes came along between the Preakness and the Belmont, people began to question Omaha's ability to claim the Triple Crown, like his sire before him. Things became worse when he lost by a length and a half in the Withers Stakes.

 On the day of the Belmont Stakes, when the track was slick and muddy, and the cloudy sky drizzled rain, making track conditions less than satisfactory, Omaha made an attempt to follow in his sire footsteps. The horse named Cold Shoulder took an early, followed by Firethorn. Firethorn led well into the backstretch. Then, in one last desperate drive, Omaha gave his all, passing the leaders and becoming the third Triple Crown winner.

In the Brooklyn Stakes, Omaha lost some of the respect he had just earned, as well as Horse of the Year honors. Then he won the Dwyer Stakes, equalling Man o' War's time of 1:49 1/5. After that, he defeat Black Helen in the Arlington Stakes, and broke Sun Beau's record with the time 2:01 2/5. He had finally gained the status of national hero. Yet in the process, he pulled up lame at Saratoga. He was later sent to England for his next season.

Sir Barton: Three-Year-old Season

 In 1919, John Ross entered Sir Barton in the Kentucky Derby, not expecting him to win. In fact, he planned that Barton would actually lose so that the favored Billy Kelly would win. Barton's primary purpose was to take an early lead, tiring out fast Eternal and Under Fire so that Billy Kelly could take the lead and win.

 However, the plan backfired. Billy Kelly failed to catch Sir Barton on the homestretch, and placed second, five lengths behind his stablemate. Eternal had finished tenth.

 Then came the Preakness, only four days after the Derby. Sir Barton easily won by by four lengths, defeating both Eternal and Dunboyne, the previous year's Futurity Stakes winner.

 After that, Barton once more defeated Eternal, this time in the Withers Stakes on May 24.

Sir Barton after winning a race(click here for photo credit)

 Next, he won the Belmont Stakes, effortlessly defeating the American time for a mile and three-sixteenths(the Belmont Stakes was only that long back then) with his time of 2:17 2/5. At the time, the three races(the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and Belmont Stakes) were not known as the Triple Crown. They were officially given that title in the 1930s. Even so, Sir Barton is still considered the first Triple Crown winner.

 Sir Barton lost for the first time since his streak began in the Dwyer Stakes. Purchase, the first winner of the Jockey Club Gold Cup, defeated him. Billy Kelly, however, was becoming a top sprinter, and defeated Barton five times that season, including in the six furlong sprint at Havre de Grace. Barton avenged his defeat in the Potomac Handicap, despite his 132 pound burden.

 He then finished second to The Porter, and third in the Havre de Grace Handicap, with Cudgel and Exterminator in front of him. In the Maryland Handicap, he beat the older Mad Hatter by two lengths. Mad Hatter then came back and defeated Barton in the next race, the Pimlico Autumn Handicap.

 Barton made a come-back when he won the other two races in the Pimlico fall serial, defeating bother The Porter and Billy Kelly. With the three-year-old record of eight wins and thirteen starts, Barton received Horse of the Year honors

Secretariat: Belmont Stakes

Three weeks after his win in Baltimore, Secretariat went to Elmont, New York, where he would run one of his most famous races. Every racing fan was eagerly awaiting the final Triple Crown race, hoping that the great Secretariat would win it and the Triple Crown.

Once again, Secretariat attempted to take an early lead. This time, however, Sham was ready, and both horses were vying for first place. They stayed neck-to-neck throughout the first half of the race. They even ran fast quarter-mile times: 23 3/5 for the first one, 46 1/5 for the second, and 1:09 4/5 for the third.

 Then, at the last turn(turns at Belmont are extremely long) Sham could not keep pace with Secretariat any longer, so he slowed down. Sham's defeat energized Secretariat, who ran even faster as he neared the finish line. His jockey, Turcotte, wanting to show the world Secretariat's abilities, let Secretariat run at his own pace, which was fast. Nothing could stop the Big Red Horse.

 By the time he was halfway through the homestretch, Secretariat had a lead of 28 lengths. His lead continued to lengthen until he passed the finish line in world record time: 2 minutes and twenty-four seconds, with an amazing lead of thirty-one lengths!

 This extraordinary horse has not only won the Triple Crown, a difficult accomplishment in itself, but also broke the records of all three races, something never before heard of.

 The world has not seen a more extraordinary horse since Secretariat. Neither has a horse been more loved by the public. His records still stand today, yet to be defeated by another great horse. Perhaps it will remain that way.


Don't miss the posts on the Triple Crown.